World Cup 2018: What’s behind Russia’s blistering start?

So hopeless did Russias prospects look in the days leading up to this World Cup that supporters were being urged to grow moustaches in a desperate attempt to lift the national team and its under-fire manager, the bewhiskered Stanislav Cherchesov.

It is not known precisely how many Muscovites took up the gauntlet laid down by television present Ivan Urgant, but the host nation has enjoyed a stunning upturn in fortunes, winning their first two group matches against Saudi Arabia and Egypt in commanding style.

The 5-0 triumph over the Saudis prompted a phone call of congratulation to Cherchesov from president Vladimir Putin while the coach was conducting his post-match media conference. After Tuesdays 3-1 defeat of Egypt, the 54-year-old was asked whether it was the best day of his life.

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Cherchesovs elevation reflects the fact that Russia havent just made a good start to the tournament; their return of six points from two games, with an aggregate eight goals scored and only one conceded, constitutes the best start of any host nation in World Cup history.

Its a far cry from their form coming into the competition. Before trouncing Saudi Arabia, they had not won for seven matches, dating back to October, and had slipped to 70th in the world rankings, making them statistically the worst team at the World Cup.

Russia were in fact odds-on favourites to beat both Saudi Arabia and Egypt, while the odds on them winning both games was 7/4. The combined odds on them winning 5-0 and 3-1, however, was a hefty 125/1. For context, South Koreas run to the 2002 semi-finals – the modern benchmark of unlikely host nation success – was a shorter price, at 100/1, according to bookmakers William Hill.

Russia coach Cherchesov has played down the team's good start (Source: Getty)

If the eye-catching nature of Russias start is beyond question, finding an explanation for it is less straightforward.

Certainly, key players have performed very well, notably Denis Cheryshev, Aleksandr Golovin and Artem Dzyuba.

Winger Cheryshev has scored three times, including a goal of the tournament contender, despite starting the first game on the bench. An injury to playmaker Alan Dzagoev, who had also been impressive in his cameo, thrust Cheryshev into action and the former Real Madrid player has seized the chance with both hands.

Golovin has thrived in the central role vacated by Dzagoev, while the hulking Dzyuba has made the strikers position his own with two goals, having started the Saudi Arabia game on the bench alongside Cheryshev.

With hindsight, perhaps there were there signs of potential in last seasons Europa League. Three Russian teams reached the last 16, with CSKA Moscow – inspired by the silky Golovin – advancing to the quarter-finals, where they lost to heavyweights Arsenal. CSKA and Spartak Moscow flopped in the Champions League, however.

Denis Cheryshev has emerged as a star of the host team (Source: Getty)

The strength of Russias opponents must also be considered. The hosts, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Uruguay is not a daunting line-up on paper and, by some metrics, rates as the weakest group in any World Cup since it changed to its current format in 1986, according to politics and analytics site FiveThirtyEight.

Then there are more intangible factors, such as luck. Russias eight goals have come from just 10 attempts on target. That is either dead-eyed efficiency, inept defending or a slice of fortune. Either way it looks difficult to sustain.

A World Cup in Russia is particularly prone to conspiracy theories if the home team flourishes, yet there have been no egregious signs of refereeing bias in their favour. In a tournament that is producing penalties at a unprecedented rate, they are yet to be awarded one. Neither of their opponents have seen red cards.

Mutterings about doping are inevitable given Russias seeming transformation and the countrys problematic history. Grigory Rodchenkov, who carried out their cross-sport doping programme before turning informant, alleged that he was asked to cover up positive tests from some footballers.

Governing body Fifa said last month that it had investigated all members of the Russia World Cup team and found “insufficient evidence” to issue any doping charges.

South Korea sprung a huge surprise with their run to the 2002 semi-finals (Source: Getty)

With a place in the last 16 assured, Russia is now wondering just how far its team could go. South Koreas run to the last four 16 years ago is a useful yardstick. Prior to that, they had only qualified for the finals twice, never making it past the group stage.

The hurdles are about to get more daunting for Russia, however, with Spain or Portugal the likely opponents in the last 16.

The phlegmatic Cherchisov may have resisted the suggestion that beating Egypt marked a new high point in his life, but eliminating the 2010 winners or the reigning European champions would surely get his moustache curling into a broad grin.

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