2022 Italian Wine Global Outlook: Nomisma Wine Monitor

The world wine market, in 2022, recorded a generalized drop in imports, in terms of volumes, which was offset by a growth in values, albeit with some exceptions. As the numbers tell us (presented today in Bologna by Denis Pantini, head of Nomisma Wine Monitor, from “Forum Wine Monitor” n. 9), the USA, between January and November 2022, marks a growth in wine imports, in value , by 18.1%, Great Britain by +28.4%, Canada by +16.2%, Japan by +22.5%, South Korea by 19.2%, while Germany, a somewhat surprisingly, it marks a drop of 4.4%, and China, which continues in its negative trend that began in 2018, well before the Covid pandemic swept the world and the Russian invasion of Ukraine upset it the political and economic balance, with an inflationary spiral that is already making itself felt in the sector.

Meanwhile, Italy closed 2022 with a new export record, at 8 billion euros, and on the main markets it confirmed its performance in line with the general figure, if not better. In the USA it grew by 16.2%, in the United Kingdom by 32.7%, in Canada by 21.7%, in Japan by 25.3% and in South Korea by 9.6%, while in Germany and China it a little worse than the average, with a drop of -11.9% and -7.2% respectively. The category of still and sparkling wines – both Italian and from the rest of the world – exactly follows the trend just described, while sparkling wines do much better: made in Italy bubbles mark +25.4% in the USA, +78. 9% in UK, +25.4% in Japan, +0.5% in Germany, +19.6% in Switzerland, +31.3% in Canada and +37.3% in Korea of the South.

In terms of growth, the “magnificent seven” world wine markets, in 2022, were, on the other hand, Qatar, which grew by +209% thanks to the driving force of the soccer World Cup – with Australia marking +238%, France +215% and Italy +163% – Thailand (+146%), Vietnam (+120%), India (+113%), Angola (+112%), the Malaysia (+99%) and the Philippines (+92%): still niches, all of which are in any case worth more than 10 million euros, and which anticipate the growth trends of the world economy for 2023, with the Middle East, the Far East and Africa on shields.

The effects of the conflict on wine imports in Russia and Ukraine are obviously being felt, as is the management of Covid in China. The Russian market was worth almost one billion euros, the Ukrainian one 130 million euros, with Italy as the first supplier in both countries with a 30% share. Russia continued to import, especially from Spain and Georgia, with France and Italy (-2.8%) which, however, lost something. In terms of types, in Russia Prosecco grows by +9.1%, while Asti Spumante loses 12.7%, whites from Veneto -11.8%, reds from Tuscany -38.1% , the reds from Veneto gain 30.9%, the whites from Sicily +7.7% (and even grow by +39.6% in Ukraine), and the reds from Sicily lose -23.1%, due to a drop total of PDO wines by -5.1%, obviously net of triangulations, because Russia is historically a market that imports wine from many other secondary markets, an even more important aspect since it was isolated from most Western countries .

Another Big Sufferer is China

Another big sufferer is China, which already from 2018 showed a decline in imports, which went globally from 2.2 billion euros in 2017 to 1.24 billion euros in 2022, just over half. The Asian giant has had, and has, growth problems, to which the zero tolerance policies on Covid have been added, and the drop in imports (-2.4% in value) has affected almost everyone, primarily Australia of course (affected by the duties exceeding 100% wanted in 2020 by Beijing), but also France (-1.2% in value in 202), Italy (-7.2%) and Spain (-16.5%), with the USA (+43.2%) and Chile (+12.2%) in clear contrast.

It is precisely the USA and Chile, on a global level, that score the best performances, in terms of percentage growth, with shipments growing by +14.2% and +12.8% respectively. France (+12.5%) also on the podium, followed by Italy (+12%), New Zealand (+8%), Spain (+5.6%) and Australia (+4.1 %). As mentioned, Italy has thus reached 8 billion euros of wine exports, but the gap with France, at 12.5 billion euros, widens, while the gap with Spain, at billions of euros, it’s getting bigger and bigger. Followed by Chile (1.9 billion euros), the USA (1.4 billion euros), Australia (1.4 billion euros) and New Zealand (1.3 billion euros). As always, the gap with France is played out on the average price, with a differential, in favor of French wines, substantially unchanged since 2013: back then it was +39.3%, today it’s +40.3%. The difference with Spanish wines (from +43.5% to +59.6%) and Chilean wines (from +28.8% to +38.9%) increases in favor of Italian wines.

Analyzing the various distribution channels, large-scale distribution is decreasing on the domestic market, but with values and volumes in any case higher than in 2019: still and sparkling wines, in 2022, reached 2.2 billion euros, sparkling wines 707 million euros. The decrease, compared to 2021, is -1.8%, with still and sparkling wines marking -2.2%, PDO wines -3.7%, PGI wines -1.1%, sparkling wines – 0.4%, sweet Charmats -3.3% and classic method -4.9%, while dry Charmats grow (+4.2%), not only thanks to Prosecco, but also with generic sparkling wines low cost sold at discount stores. Remaining in large-scale distribution, a negative sign also for e-commerce (-23.8% for still and sparkling wines and -1.2% for sparkling wines) and organic wines (-4.7% for still and sparkling wines and +15.2% for sparkling wines).

On the other hand, the Horeca channel has restarted definitively, which in the period January-September 2022 recorded a strong growth in turnover compared to the same period of 2021, as it is easy to imagine. Germany records +60.6%, France the +57.9%, the Netherlands +50.9%, Italy +46.6% and Spain +39%. Data also pushed up by the return of tourists: the Belpaese counted 89.1 million between January and September 2022 (Eurostat data), between Italians and foreigners. The total of 108 million in 2019 is still a long way off, as are the 136.2 million in France, the 120.3 million in Germany and the 105.6 million in Spain.

Looking to 2023, which has just begun, a rather slow growth in GDP is expected in the historical markets of Italian wine, Southeast Asia is doing better, where Italian wine is still not very present. Growth estimates for the Italian economy speak of a substantial floating (+0.3% – +0.4%), but not of a recession. The price of energy, especially gas, will be a fundamental factor, because inflation is inextricably linked to the cost of energy, as is the purchasing power of consumers, on which, obviously, the stability of the wine market. In fact, the shopping cart is already paying the consequences of the price increase, with Italians who, to counter the high cost of living, decide to make fewer purchases of non-essential products (46%), reduce purchases in terms of value without renouncing to quality (22%), reduce purchases in quantity (9%), reduce purchases both in terms of value and quantity (7%), leave the shopping cart unchanged (16%). Among the products at “cut risk”, wine is in sixth place, behind snacks, carbonated drinks, red meats, fish and cured meats.

Focus – The Point of View of Cantine Riunite (Civ)

“The last two years have been characterized by uncertainty, just like 2023, with the increase in prices, the war in Ukraine and inflation,” comments Francesca Benini, sales and marketing manager of Cantine Riunite (Civ).
“The greatest concern concerns the costs of materials, especially glass, which undermine the margins of companies. Today’s increases serve to support the higher costs of 2022, but how manageable these costs are by companies, large-scale distribution and importers is one of the two fundamental points. The second theme concerns the consumer and his attitude in the face of this crisis: these are the two aspects that risk undermining the profitability of wine companies. The global and financial crisis of 2008 and 2009 was perceived as something we knew would end, this, however, comes after two years of health crisis, and this aspect weighs on consumer behavior, which experiences a real dichotomy: from on the one hand, the propensity to fill the trolley with low-level products, on the other the premiumisation, driven by international tourism and the summer, which pushes Italians to stay out (in December, consumption of wine away from home grew by 16 %).
Interpreting the international market, between 2023 and 2024 we must consider that the consumer, in Italy and abroad, will put health at the center, with increasingly important health trends, so much so that Nielsen has created a new category: “better for you ”, which describes low-alcohol, vegan, organic wines that are good for you, in the US sense. In Italy this type of consumer is defined as an “aware nutritionist”, he is transversal by age group, very attentive to his and the planet’s well-being. Companies and brands capable of recalling sustainable elements, not necessarily organic, able to tell a territory and combine this consumer need, will have ever greater importance”.

This article is originally published on winenews.it