Business

The Tories are losing London – the fightback needs to start now

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What a difference a year makes.

In March 2017, the headlines were stacked with news of Jeremy Corbyn’s unpopularity, especially in London, where he faced approval ratings of minus 44.

Even London Labour supporters weren’t convinced about their Islington leader, and he had negative ratings from every demographic.

That was before Theresa May called an unnecessary election, botched it, and spent nine months in a state of total paralysis. Now, with local council elections in London this May, the Tories are looking at a wipe-out, potentially losing strongholds like Wandsworth, Westminster, and Barnet. The capital’s overwhelmingly pro-EU population is preparing to take out its fury at Brexit – both as a principle and for the frustratingly drawn-out way the process is being handled.

Things do not look good for the Tories. True, the actual number of councils Labour can expect to win is minimal – simply because it has most of them already, having won them in 2014. But far more worrying is the tidal wave of support for London mayor Sadiq Khan (rated with 53 points out of 100 by Londoners in the latest poll – the highest of any politician), and the fact that the Tories have no viable contender for the 2020 race.

The moderate, Remainer, gay, state-educated Justine Greening looked like their best bet, but after being sacked from the cabinet in January, she’s no longer a frontrunner, and it’s hard to think of anyone else who could have a hope of taking on Khan.

With the Conservatives reaching their nadir in terms of London support, the only way to go is up. The race for mayor is probably already over, but the fightback for London needs to start now. And it starts with the same voters the Tory party belatedly began to notice in autumn: millennials.

The proportion of London residents aged 20-34 is over a third higher than for the UK on average. If the Tories have a youth problem for the country as a whole, they have it in spades when it comes to the capital.

The Conservatives’ misjudgement when it comes to this demographic can be seen in the botched “millennial railcard” policy. The Autumn Budget would have been a perfect time for Philip Hammond to tackle the supply-side factors that make buying a home a fantasy for most young Londoners. Instead, he offered reduced rail travel for the struggling under-30s.

The grand railcard scheme was meant to launch this week, but in the end only 10,000 cards were released, and the website to register crashed within seconds. Not exactly inspiring.

Until the Tories get serious about tackling the housing crisis, they are always going to be at a disadvantage. But that said, they can do more to attract these voters than offer railcard gimmicks, especially in London.

The capital prospers off its ability to lure ambitious, entrepreneurial young workers from around the country. They should be pro-business by definition, yet they have flocked to Corbyn, a man for whom profit is a dirty word, who would have the state take over private enterprises and protect incumbents at the expense of innovative new firms.

Corbyn’s antipathy for new forms of enterprise is no secret. His shadow business secretary has said that using Uber is “not morally acceptable” – never mind the thousands of Londoners who now have jobs that didn’t exist before, and the tens of thousands more who benefit from cheaper, flexible transport.

The party has called for more tax and regulation on tech firms, but rarely said anything in support of London’s world-leading tech sector.

Meanwhile, Corbyn’s inherent mistrust of financial institutions (he called the finance industry “undemocratic and pernicious” last month) has stopped the party from recognising the phenomenal potential of fintech – another City success story.

If the Tories can move away from the Brexit debate long enough to make the case for enterprise, technology, and progress, they have a chance to win over these young people who have come to the capital to work and thrive.

May’s local elections will likely be a disaster. That’s a given. But let them be a starting point for a recovery that is long overdue.

Original Article

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