UK Population Growth Slows to Lowest Rate Outside Pandemic Since 1998

Key Points

• The UK population was estimated at about 69.5 million in mid-2025, with annual growth slowing sharply.
• The reported increase of 0.33% represents the lowest annual rate of population growth outside the pandemic period since 1998.
• The slowdown has been driven mainly by a substantial fall in net international migration from the exceptionally high levels recorded in 2023 and 2024.
• The supplied figures put net migration at 222,900 in the year to mid-2025, compared with 651,700 in the preceding 12 months.
• Births also declined, with about 652,400 recorded in the year to mid-2025, while deaths stood at approximately 647,500.
• Natural change therefore added only around 4,900 people to the UK population, down from 16,200 a year earlier.
• England recorded the strongest population growth among the four UK nations, while Wales experienced an estimated population decline.
• Wales recorded its first year-on-year population fall in a decade, while Scotland and Northern Ireland recorded almost no growth.
• ONS projections indicate that deaths could exceed births from 2026 onwards and that the UK population could begin declining in the mid-2050s if current demographic trends continue.
• The ONS stresses that population projections are based on assumptions about recent and historical trends and are not forecasts of what will necessarily happen.

Britain Post News (BPN) October 1, 2026 – The UK’s population growth has slowed to its lowest annual rate outside the Covid-19 pandemic since 1998, according to population figures attributed to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The population stood at an estimated 69.5 million in mid-2025, with the increase over the previous year substantially smaller than the rises recorded during the period of exceptionally high net international migration. The figures show that the slowdown has been driven principally by falling net migration, while the contribution from births exceeding deaths has also become considerably smaller.

How much did the UK population grow in the year to mid-2025?

The ONS estimates that the UK population reached 69.5 million in mid-2025. Its provisional UK estimate, published on 27 November 2025, put the population at 69,487,000 on 30 June 2025. The ONS describes these as accredited official statistics, although the UK-wide mid-2025 estimate was initially provisional.

The figures supplied for this report indicate an increase of 227,665 people over the previous 12 months, equivalent to annual population growth of 0.33%.

That represents a marked change from the pace of growth recorded in the preceding years. According to the figures supplied, the UK population increased by 1.05% in 2022, 1.34% in 2023 and 0.97% in 2024.

The ONS has previously documented how unusually rapid population growth during 2022 and 2023 was closely associated with increased international migration. Its analysis of GDP per head noted that the UK population grew at around 1% annually in 2022 and 2023, the fastest pace for more than 75 years, with higher immigration from non-EU countries playing a significant role.

The latest figures therefore mark a substantial departure from that period of rapid demographic expansion.

Why has UK population growth slowed so sharply?

The central factor is the reduction in net international migration.

Net migration measures the difference between the number of people moving to the UK for long-term residence and the number leaving the country for long-term residence elsewhere. Because migration can involve hundreds of thousands of people each year, relatively large changes in this measure can have a significant effect on total population growth.

The figures supplied with the report put net migration at 222,900 in the year to mid-2025, down from 651,700 in the previous 12-month period.

The ONS’s provisional UK population release also identifies international migration as one of the principal components behind the mid-2025 population estimate. However, the ONS’s initial provisional UK-only estimate used an earlier migration estimate of 204,000 for the year ending June 2025.

This distinction is important because population statistics are revised as more complete migration information becomes available.

The ONS has also changed its approach to estimating long-term international migration. In a 2026 update, the organisation said that its migration estimates had been improved and that all aspects of the estimates were being produced using administrative data rather than relying on survey data.

What role have changes in migration policy played?

The supplied report attributes part of the fall in migration to changes in UK immigration policy.

It says there has been a decline in the number of people arriving from outside the European Union for work-related reasons. This followed restrictions introduced by the previous Conservative government and continued by the Labour government, which tightened rules governing employment-related migration.

The report also identifies fewer arrivals through official humanitarian resettlement programmes and increased emigration from the UK as factors affecting the overall migration balance.

These points should be understood as explanations of the demographic change rather than a single-cause account. Net migration is affected by several different flows, including work, study, family migration, humanitarian routes and people leaving the UK.

The ONS’s population statistics methodology defines long-term migrants as people who change their country of usual residence for at least 12 months. Short-term migrants are not included in the standard population estimate.

Why is natural population growth becoming smaller?

Migration is not the only factor behind the slowdown.

The gap between births and deaths has narrowed considerably. The figures supplied state that approximately 652,400 births occurred in the year to mid-2025, described as the lowest level for more than four decades.

Around 647,500 deaths were recorded over the same period.

That produced natural change — births minus deaths — of approximately 4,900 people.

The contribution from natural change was therefore considerably smaller than the 16,200 recorded during the previous year.

The longer-term demographic trend is also significant. The ONS has reported declining fertility and a gradual reduction in natural population change over recent decades. Its historical analysis shows that population growth has increasingly depended on international migration as the balance between births and deaths has weakened.

The figures supplied also point to an important recent comparison. In the year to mid-2023, deaths exceeded births, producing negative natural change of approximately 16,300.

That means the UK’s natural population balance has moved from a period in which deaths exceeded births to one in which births once again exceed deaths, but only by a relatively small margin.

How have England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland differed?

The four nations of the UK have not experienced the same demographic pattern.

England recorded estimated population growth of 0.39% in the year to June 2025, according to the figures supplied. Scotland and Northern Ireland recorded only marginal increases of 0.04% and 0.03% respectively.

Wales was different, with its population estimated to have fallen by 0.09%.

That was the first year-on-year population decline recorded in Wales since 2015.

The ONS’s detailed mid-2025 estimates for England and Wales, released in July 2026, provide additional evidence of the divergence between the two countries. They put the combined population of England and Wales at about 62.0 million, an increase of 224,900, or 0.4%, from mid-2024. The ONS said this was the lowest rate of increase since mid-2020 and that the reduction was primarily associated with falling international net migration, alongside slightly lower natural change.

Why are Wales and Scotland seeing stronger natural decline?

The ONS attributes the difference partly to population age structures.

Wales and Scotland have older populations on average than England and Northern Ireland. An older population tends to have a higher number of deaths and a lower number of births, all else being equal.

The report also states that women in Wales and Scotland have, on average, fewer children than women elsewhere in the UK.

This combination of demographic ageing and lower fertility contributes to weaker or negative natural population change.

In Wales, international migration still contributed positively to population growth. However, the increase generated through international migration was more than offset by negative natural change, meaning deaths exceeded births sufficiently to produce an overall population decline.

This illustrates how the different components of population change interact. A country can receive more people through international migration while still recording an overall population decline if natural change is sufficiently negative.

What do the ONS projections say about future population change?

The longer-term implications are linked to the balance between fertility, mortality and migration.

ONS projections published earlier in 2026 indicated that deaths could exceed births in every year from 2026 onwards if the demographic assumptions used in the projections were realised.

The projections also indicated that population growth could continue to slow before eventually stopping, with the UK population beginning to decline during the mid-2050s.

However, the ONS makes an important distinction between projections and forecasts.

Population projections are calculations based on assumptions about demographic trends. They are not statements that a particular future outcome will definitely occur.

The assumptions can change if fertility, mortality or international migration develops differently from the levels used in the calculations.

The ONS itself says its projections are based on current and past trends, including recent changes in net migration and fertility, and do not take into account events that may occur in the future. This makes the figures useful for examining possible demographic trajectories rather than treating them as guaranteed outcomes.

What does the slowdown mean for public services and the UK economy?

Population growth is an important factor in planning for public services, housing, infrastructure, transport, healthcare and education.

A rapidly growing population can increase demand for homes, schools, transport capacity and other services. A slowing or eventually declining population can produce different pressures, particularly if the age structure changes at the same time.

The economic implications also depend on the age and employment characteristics of the population.

The Bank of England has previously noted that strong population growth contributed to potential labour supply growth, particularly during the period when net migration was unusually high.

A sustained reduction in population growth could therefore affect the rate at which the working-age population expands. However, the precise economic effect would depend on factors including participation rates, productivity, employment, migration patterns and changes in the age structure.

The population figures themselves do not establish what the economic consequences will be.

How reliable are the latest UK population figures?

The ONS describes population estimates as official statistics and explains that mid-year estimates refer to the population on 30 June. They are based on the concept of usual residence and include people who live, or intend to live, in the UK for at least 12 months.

The ONS also warns that population statistics can be revised when better information becomes available.

This is particularly relevant to migration statistics because migration estimates have undergone methodological changes in recent years.

The provisional UK mid-2025 estimate was based on the mid-2024 population estimate, provisional international migration data, birth registrations and death registrations. The ONS said more complete information would subsequently become available.

As a result, individual figures reported at different stages can differ slightly without necessarily indicating an error. Readers should therefore distinguish between the figures in an initial release and later revised estimates.

What is the background to the UK’s changing population growth?

The UK’s population has generally increased for decades, but the pace has varied substantially.

ONS historical data show the population at 58.5 million in 1998, rising steadily through the following decades. The official time series records a population of 66.6 million in 2019, 66.7 million in 2020, 67.6 million in 2022, 68.5 million in 2023, 69.3 million in 2024 and approximately 69.5 million in 2025.

The pandemic created an exceptional demographic period. The ONS previously reported that population growth in the year to mid-2020 was affected by higher mortality and changes in international movement. It described the 2020 rate as the slowest in two decades at that time.

The subsequent years saw a significant acceleration, largely associated with increased net international migration.

The latest figures show that this acceleration has now reversed considerably, while declining fertility and the ageing population are placing greater importance on natural change.

What could the latest population figures mean for the UK audience?

The immediate effect is that the UK is experiencing much slower demographic growth than it did during the exceptional migration-driven expansion of the early 2020s.

For households, employers and public authorities, the implications will depend on how the trend develops rather than on one year’s estimate alone.

For policymakers and local authorities, the figures provide information relevant to long-term planning for housing, healthcare, education, transport and other services. For employers, changes in the size and age profile of the population can affect the available labour supply.

The particularly important issue is the relationship between migration and natural change. If births remain close to or below deaths while net migration stays substantially lower than its recent peak, overall population growth could remain limited.

The ONS’s longer-term projections provide one possible trajectory in which the population eventually stops growing and begins to decline. They should not, however, be treated as a guaranteed outcome because future migration, fertility and mortality can all change.

The latest statistics therefore show a clear demographic shift, while the longer-term direction remains dependent on developments that cannot yet be known with certainty.